Five Ways Startup Funding Will Change In 2016

The less-interesting reality, however, is much more nuanced. Markets are not binary.

For example, I fully expect startup funding levels in 2016 to exceed those of 2015. However, there are also many untenable conditions in the world of startup financing, so I believe there will also be a number of market corrections.

Here are my five predictions for changes in startup funding you can expect to see over the next 12 months.

1. The Seed Valuation Slump

In 2014 and 2015, angel and seed valuations skyrocketed in a “Seed Surge”, with post money valuations regularly running between $10 MM and $30 MM for companies in Silicon Valley and other prime markets. This is pricing out a lot of investors from participating in Series A rounds.

2. The Double Digit Valuation Dump

In 2016, thousands of the angel and seed-stage companies that raised money with valuations in the double digit millions will be left without any future ability to raise capital. Many of these companies have already returned to the angel and seed markets for second, third and fourth anemic rounds of funding, often having flat valuations over a period of 18 to 24 months. Unable to generate enough traction to get a Series B and too expensive for the Series A investors, these companies will unfortunately be stranded without any financing options available.

Everyone from small banks to large government agencies are running seed-accelerators today. In addition, the competition for recruiting strong companies is fierce, the economics are challenging, and the gap in quality across seed-accelerators is striking. There are simply way too many seed-accelerators than the market can support.

As a result, I believe in 2016 hundreds of seed-accelerators will be forced to vertically integrate, consolidate, or quietly stop accepting new cohorts. This will leave just a few major global players, with an additional few local and specialized programs in each city. This trend has already started, as evidenced by the Techstars acquisition of Up Global, and I expect to see similar moves by other organizations in 2016.

4. The Rise of Common Stock

Most great companies have BOTH great founders and investors behind them. However, the terms of the modern preferred agreement cede a majority of control to the investors, which can erode trust and create a suboptimal relationship between founders and their investors. What’s more, the retail offering of preferred stock through platforms like AngelList has allowed many unsophisticated investors to buy into startups with enormous downside protection.

In 2016, I believe both investors and founders will start to focus more on the alignment of vision and incentives as a competitive advantage, and this will lead to the rise of investing in common stock, compared to preferred, at the earliest stages of a company. I don’t think it’s out of the question to see nearly 10% of early-stage deals done with common by the end of the year.

5. The Global Billion Boom

Over the last few years, about 60% of the world’s billion dollar tech companies were started in the United States, with Silicon Valley accounting for approximately 50%. However, we are seeing major pockets of billion dollar startups in international startup markets like Asia (19%), Europe (8%) India (5%), and more.

Over the next 12 months, there will be more opportunities for global investors to capitalize on the private equity boom that has created enormous wealth in America, and an even larger influx of investors looking outside of the U.S. for the next hot company. I expect major value creation for startups in China, India, Indonesia, Canada, Mexico and select European countries.

In fact, I believe there will be more “Unicorns” hatched outside of the United States than inside in 2016.

Now I ask you…. what do you think?